In these cases, listed in table 2, the public and the political elite were able to find ways to reduce the tensions that have divided them. The data show that it is possible for democracies to depolarize. Table 1: Outcomes of Episodes of Pernicious Polarization The country experiences pernicious polarization and a downgrading of its democracy score.The country’s democracy is able to live with the chronically high levels of polarization without undergoing any democratic downgrading (to date).The country manages to depolarize but suffers democratically.The country manages to depolarize and keep its democracy intact.9įour basic outcomes were possible from this comparison, as reflected in table 1: 8 We then compared the trajectories of their democratic ratings with their levels of political polarization. To situate the United States’ experience within the broader universe of polarized democracies, we compiled a comprehensive list of episodes since 1950 when a democracy reached pernicious levels of polarization for at least two years. Political Outcomes of Pernicious Polarization The United States is in uncharted and very dangerous territory. Quite strikingly, the United States is the only advanced Western democracy to have faced such intense polarization for such an extended period. 7 Only sixteen episodes were able to reduce polarization to below-pernicious levels, and the decline in polarization was only sustained in nine of those cases. Severe polarization correlates with serious democratic decline: of the fifty-two instances where democracies reached pernicious levels of polarization, twenty-six-fully half of the cases-experienced a downgrading of their democratic rating. To rectify this gap, we used the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set to take a close look at episodes of pernicious polarization around the world since 1950 and trace their relationships with levels of democracy. Jennifer McCoy is a nonresident scholar in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on political polarization and democratic resilience in the U.S. 5 Yet broader context for understanding how democracies fare when facing pernicious polarization is lacking. Comparative studies have already shown that pernicious polarization is directly linked with democratic erosion and that the United States is far from the only democracy to confront severe polarization. 4 The experiences of these other countries can provide useful insights into the United States’ own struggles-and may help to predict what may be to come. Many other democracies around the world have grappled or are grappling with the difficulties posed by the onset of pernicious polarization, which McCoy and Somer have defined elsewhere as the division of society into mutually distrustful political camps in which political identity becomes a social identity. 3 Polarization has already brought on serious problems-what more lies ahead? Are insights on this critical question available from the experience of other polarized democracies? 2 Even more concerningly, these dynamics are contributing directly to a steep rise in political violence. The rise of an “us versus them” mindset and political identity in American sociopolitical life is evident in everything from the rise of highly partisan media to the decline in Americans’ willingness to marry someone from the opposing political party. Yet these divides extend far beyond the corridors of power, as polarization at the mass level is pushing Americans across the country to divide themselves into distinct and mutually exclusive political camps. At the elite level, deep political divides in Washington have crippled efforts at legislative compromise, eroded institutional and behavioral norms, and incentivized politicians to pursue their aims outside of gridlocked institutions, including through the courts. The rise of political polarization in the United States has pushed analysts to ask a fundamental question: what long-term effects will polarized politics have on the United States’ democracy? 1 Existing evidence provides ample reason for concern.
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